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Merged
utkuvibing merged 2 commits into from
Aug 27, 2026
Merged

Keep Explore useful while historical publication stays closed #34

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bc9d568
Keep Explore useful while historical publication stays closed
utkuvibing Aug 27, 2026
9a1dac8
Audit fix: reconcile the two Explore denominators explicitly
utkuvibing Aug 27, 2026
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70 changes: 44 additions & 26 deletions frontend/app/explore/page.tsx
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
import { ExploreView } from "@/components/ExploreView";
import { ErrorNotice } from "@/components/status-notice";
import { ExploreRoute } from "@/components/explore/ExploreRoute";
import {
asModelApiErrorInfo,
assertProvenanceEqual,
Expand All @@ -11,24 +10,48 @@ import {
type ModelMetadata,
type ModelMetrics,
} from "@/lib/model-api";
import { fetchAllShots, fetchConversionRate, type ConversionRate, type Shot } from "@/lib/api";
import { resourceState } from "@/lib/server-data";

export const dynamic = "force-dynamic";

export const metadata = {
title: "Explore the 2022 calibration set",
title: "Explore World Cup 2022",
};

type RecordedState =
| { status: "ready"; shots: Shot[]; total: number }
| { status: "error"; error: ModelApiErrorInfo };

async function loadRecorded(): Promise<RecordedState> {
try {
// WC2022 is ~1.5k shots; the endpoint caps pages at 1000 rows and the client stops early
// if the server ever does, so this is a bounded two-page request in practice.
const all = await fetchAllShots();
return { status: "ready", shots: all.shots, total: all.total };
} catch (cause) {
return { status: "error", error: asModelApiErrorInfo(cause) };
}
}

export default async function ExplorePage() {
const [metadataResult, metricsResult, historicalResult] = await Promise.allSettled([
fetchModelMetadata(),
fetchModelMetrics(),
fetchAllHistoricalShots(),
]);
const [metadataResult, metricsResult, historicalResult, recordedResult, baselineResult] =
await Promise.allSettled([
fetchModelMetadata(),
fetchModelMetrics(),
fetchAllHistoricalShots(),
loadRecorded(),
fetchConversionRate(),
]);

const metadata = resourceState<ModelMetadata>(metadataResult);
const metrics = resourceState<ModelMetrics>(metricsResult);
const historical = resourceState<HistoricalShotCollection>(historicalResult);
const recorded =
recordedResult.status === "fulfilled"
? recordedResult.value
: ({ status: "error", error: asModelApiErrorInfo(recordedResult.reason) } satisfies RecordedState);
const baseline = resourceState<ConversionRate>(baselineResult);

let provenanceError: ModelApiErrorInfo | null = null;

Expand All @@ -45,36 +68,31 @@ export default async function ExplorePage() {
provenanceError = {
code: "provenance_unverified",
message:
"Model identity and evaluation must both load before historical rows can be combined with them.",
"Model identity and evaluation must both load before any model-derived view can be combined with them.",
status: null,
};
}

const publicationState = metadata.status === "ready" ? metadata.data.historical_publication_state : "closed";

return (
<main className="page">
<section className="site-shell hero">
<h1>The 2022 calibration set, shot by shot.</h1>
<h1>World Cup 2022, shot by shot.</h1>
<p className="hero-lede">
The released model&apos;s calibrated probability for each World Cup 2022 shot, subject
to the publication boundary below.
Recorded shots you can filter and inspect, and the served model on call for
hypotheticals. Where the publication boundary closes, the page says so instead of
improvising.
</p>
</section>

<section className="site-shell section section-first">
{metadata.status !== "ready" ? (
<ErrorNotice title="The workspace needs a verified model identity" error={metadata.error} />
) : metrics.status !== "ready" ? (
<ErrorNotice title="The workspace needs a verified model identity" error={metrics.error} />
) : (
<ExploreView
historical={historical.status === "ready" ? historical.data : null}
publicationState={publicationState}
loadError={historical.status === "error" ? historical.error : null}
provenanceError={provenanceError}
/>
)}
<ExploreRoute
metadata={metadata}
metrics={metrics}
historical={historical}
recorded={recorded}
baseline={baseline}
provenanceError={provenanceError}
/>
</section>
</main>
);
Expand Down
178 changes: 177 additions & 1 deletion frontend/app/globals.css
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -833,6 +833,178 @@ thead th {
font-size: 0.92rem;
}

/* Secondary publication-boundary note. Quieter than a refusal block: the gate lives in
the API, and this only explains its current state. */
.boundary-note {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: auto 1fr;
gap: 1.25rem;
align-items: start;
margin-top: 1.5rem;
padding: 1rem 1.15rem;
border-left: 3px solid var(--warning);
background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--warning) 6%, transparent);
}

.boundary-note-body {
display: grid;
gap: 0.5rem;
}

.boundary-note-body p {
color: var(--muted);
font-size: 0.92rem;
line-height: 1.6;
}

.explore-sub-head {
margin-top: clamp(2rem, 4.5vw, 3rem);
margin-bottom: 1.25rem;
}

.baseline-caveat {
margin-top: 0.6rem;
color: var(--muted);
font-size: 0.82rem;
max-width: 46rem;
}

.baseline-caveat summary {
cursor: pointer;
width: fit-content;
font-weight: 620;
text-decoration: underline;
text-decoration-thickness: 0.08em;
text-underline-offset: 0.2em;
}

.baseline-caveat[open] summary {
margin-bottom: 0.4rem;
}

.recorded-outcome-callout {
display: grid;
gap: 0.3rem;
margin: 1.25rem 0;
padding: 0.9rem 1rem;
border-left: 3px solid var(--teal);
background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--teal) 5%, transparent);
}

.recorded-outcome-callout span {
color: var(--muted);
font-size: 0.72rem;
font-weight: 700;
letter-spacing: 0.06em;
text-transform: uppercase;
}

.recorded-outcome-callout strong {
color: var(--teal-text);
font-family: var(--font-geist-mono), monospace;
font-size: 1.5rem;
letter-spacing: -0.03em;
}

.detail-note {
display: block;
font-size: 0.74rem;
font-weight: 400;
}

/* ---------------------------------------------------------------- playground */

.playground-grid {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1.15fr) minmax(17rem, 0.85fr);
gap: clamp(1.5rem, 3.5vw, 2.75rem);
align-items: start;
}

.playground-form {
display: grid;
gap: 1.25rem;
min-width: 0;
}

.playground-form fieldset {
display: grid;
gap: 0.9rem;
border: 1px solid var(--line);
border-radius: 8px;
background: var(--panel);
padding: 1rem 1.1rem 1.15rem;
min-width: 0;
}

.playground-form legend {
color: var(--muted);
font-size: 0.68rem;
font-weight: 750;
letter-spacing: 0.1em;
text-transform: uppercase;
padding-inline: 0.35rem;
}

.playground-pitch {
color: var(--teal);
max-width: 22rem;
}

.playground-coordinates {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
gap: 0.75rem;
}

.playground-form input[type="number"] {
width: 100%;
min-height: 2.35rem;
padding: 0.35rem 0.5rem;
border: 1px solid var(--line-strong);
border-radius: 6px;
background: var(--panel);
color: var(--foreground);
font-family: var(--font-geist-mono), ui-monospace, monospace;
font-size: 0.9rem;
}

.field-error {
color: var(--error);
font-size: 0.78rem;
line-height: 1.45;
}

.playground-result {
display: grid;
gap: 1rem;
position: sticky;
top: 4.5rem;
min-width: 0;
}

.playground-callout {
margin: 0;
}

.playground-callout strong {
font-size: 2.6rem;
}

.playground-hint {
max-width: 30rem;
line-height: 1.6;
font-size: 0.92rem;
}

.playground-errors {
margin-top: 0;
}

.playground-provenance > div {
grid-template-columns: minmax(5.5rem, 0.45fr) 1fr;
}

.filters {
display: grid;
gap: 0.9rem;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1307,10 +1479,14 @@ thead th {
.evidence-split,
.workspace-grid,
.split,
.compare-grid {
.compare-grid,
.playground-grid {
grid-template-columns: 1fr;
}

.playground-result {
position: static;
}
.detail-panel {
position: static;
}
Expand Down
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